Prestige beauty remains resilient as sales continue to rise, even while recession looms. According to data from The NPD Group, prestige beauty sales in the US grew to $6 billion in the third quarter, a 15% increase over Q3 2021.

Brick-and-mortar skincare sales saw the most growth, but online sales still account for 40% of sales, except for haircare, which has a nearly even channel split between online and in-store revenue.

"Unit sales and revenue are both growing by double digits for beauty products sold in the prestige market, indicating that consumers are indulging in beauty products this year," said Larissa Jensen, beauty industry advisor at The NPD Group, in a statement. "Fragrance sales will grow this holiday season, albeit slower than in years past, and makeup, skincare, and haircare should also shine during the holidays, maintaining the strong sales performance these categories have experienced so far this year."

Makeup

• Makeup sales officially surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels during the third quarter, posting $2.1 billion in total sales, representing a 15% increase over Q3 2021.
• Lip makeup was the fastest-growing segment for the quarter, up 32%.

Skincare

• Skincare sales increased 14% compared to 2021's third quarter, to $1.7 billion, driven by clinical brands, followed by natural brands.

Haircare

• Despite having the lowest total sales volume at $853.8 million, the category saw the most growth in the third quarter, increasing 23% versus 2021's third quarter. 
• Products with restorative and strengthening claims outpaced overall category growth.

Fragrance

• Fragrance saw an 11% increase versus the same period last year, bringing in $1.3 billion in sales in the third quarter.
• Brick-and-mortar revenue represented more than three-quarters of US sales in the category.
• Demand for fragrance remains steady, but the average prices for fragrance have risen more quickly than products in other categories, fueling the category's growth.

Jensen said she forecasts cross-category performance to remain unfettered by macroeconomic pressures through the holidays, a testament to Leonard A. Lauder's "lipstick index," which speculates that cosmetic sales rise during times of economic hardship as consumers look to affordable indulgences.